The historical indications are that the answer to this question is ‘No’. The United States Grand Prix has been canceled and relaunched numerous times.
The first problem Formula 1 faces is its obvious similarity to the homegrown Indy circuit. Although it split into CART and Indy for a number of years, the series is now reunited and stronger than ever. Both series feature powerful open wheel cars. However, Indy cars are more standardized, arguably allowing for greater competition between drivers. Also, of the 19 Indy races scheduled for 2011, seven were or will be contested on oval courses. Never popular in Europe, oval or stadium circuits are a fixture of American racing. These circuits allow spectators to see the entire race from the stands and often sell out.
The second, and more serious problem is the reputation Formula One has earned. First of all, Formula One is notoriously sexist, even more than is the average for motor racing. United States coverage of Formula One tends to edit out the ‘Grid Girls’, models who, in skimpy outfits, stand by the cars as they wait on the grid, sometimes holding umbrellas to shade the drivers. Unlike cheerleaders, who’s job involves skill, these girls are paid to stand there and look pretty. More seriously is the reputation earned by the two Formula One top dogs, Bernie Ecclestone and recently retired Max Mosley, who’s fascist politics have long had a negative impact on the popularity of the series. The series is constantly plagued by politics, with teams threatening to split and make their own series.
Tellingly, the most recent threat is for several tracks to ditch Formula One in favor of…running an IndyCAR race. For all of these reasons, it seems unlikely that Formula One can compete in the United States without major reform.